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New Study by ISDC: Costs of Conflict Comparable to Costs of Climate Change

Calculating the impact of different societal challenges, such as climate change, HIV/AIDS or cancer, uncovers the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. Since violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, the analysis of its impact is important. Using an integrated economic model accounting for multiple forms of conflict, the study finds that in the absence of violent conflict since 1960, global GDP in 2007 would have been 15.7% (10.9 trillion USD) larger. Furthermore, global income inequality would have been significantly lower. The largest absolute impacts are associated with domestic strife in China and India while Afghanistan suffers the largest relative burden. In contrast, many developed economies actually benefit from war. This shows that violent conflict is an integral part of the world economic structure, with a burden possibly exceeding that of climate change.

Full reference: de Groot, O.J., C. Bozzoli and T. Brück, (2015). “The Global Economic Burden of Violent Conflict”. HiCN Working Papers, Nr. 199.

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New Article: Do jobs aid peace? The impact of employment interventions on peace, security and stability

The article titled “Do jobs aid peace? The impact of employment interventions on peace, security and stability” by Tilman Brück, Neil T.N. Ferguson, Valeria Izzi and Wolfgang Stojetz has been published in the February/March 2017 issue of GREAT Insights on Youth employment in fragile countries. The magazine is published by the European Centre for Development Policy Management […]

New Publication on Violent Conflict and Inequality

The article by Çağatay Bircan, Tilman Brück & Marc Vothknecht “Violent conflict and inequality” has been published in the Journal of Oxford Development Studies on Taylor & Francis Online. It is available here.The paper analyses the distributive impacts of internal violent conflicts, in contrast to previous literature which has focused on the effects of inequality […]

Money Can’t Buy Love But Can it Buy Peace?

Tilman Brück’s and Neil Ferguson’s letter to the Editor on the peace process in Northern Ireland has been published in the Economist. The letter refers to their study “Money Can’t Buy Love But Can it Buy Peace? Evidence from the EU Programme for Peace and Reconciliation” that looked at the second wave of PEACE programmes and […]