New Study by ISDC: Costs of Conflict Comparable to Costs of Climate Change

Calculating the impact of different societal challenges, such as climate change, HIV/AIDS or cancer, uncovers the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. Since violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, the analysis of its impact is important. Using an integrated economic model accounting for multiple forms of conflict, the study finds that in the absence of violent conflict since 1960, global GDP in 2007 would have been 15.7% (10.9 trillion USD) larger. Furthermore, global income inequality would have been significantly lower. The largest absolute impacts are associated with domestic strife in China and India while Afghanistan suffers the largest relative burden. In contrast, many developed economies actually benefit from war. This shows that violent conflict is an integral part of the world economic structure, with a burden possibly exceeding that of climate change.

Full reference: de Groot, O.J., C. Bozzoli and T. Brück, (2015). “The Global Economic Burden of Violent Conflict”. HiCN Working Papers, Nr. 199.

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Paper on Local Budget Transparency and Participation in Kyrgyzstan

Damir Esenaliev co-authored a paper investigating the determinants of civic participation in local budget processes in rural areas in the Kyrgyz Republic by using data from the Life in Kyrgyzstan survey, conducted in 2012. The analysis of the data suggests that although civic awareness and interest in local budget processes is relatively high, the participation […]

Lebanon must learn from the Syrian disaster

In their latest op-ed, Tilman Brück and Mounir Mahmalat argue that overlapping crises are threatening the political, economic and social stability of Lebanon. As this column explains, the disaster in Syria provides insights into how grievances can accumulate to a point at which single events can trigger conflict. Elites in Lebanon must commit to a new […]

Money Can’t Buy Love But Can it Buy Peace?

Tilman Brück’s and Neil Ferguson’s letter to the Editor on the peace process in Northern Ireland has been published in the Economist. The letter refers to their study “Money Can’t Buy Love But Can it Buy Peace? Evidence from the EU Programme for Peace and Reconciliation” that looked at the second wave of PEACE programmes and […]

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