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New Study by ISDC: Costs of Conflict Comparable to Costs of Climate Change

Calculating the impact of different societal challenges, such as climate change, HIV/AIDS or cancer, uncovers the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. Since violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, the analysis of its impact is important. Using an integrated economic model accounting for multiple forms of conflict, the study finds that in the absence of violent conflict since 1960, global GDP in 2007 would have been 15.7% (10.9 trillion USD) larger. Furthermore, global income inequality would have been significantly lower. The largest absolute impacts are associated with domestic strife in China and India while Afghanistan suffers the largest relative burden. In contrast, many developed economies actually benefit from war. This shows that violent conflict is an integral part of the world economic structure, with a burden possibly exceeding that of climate change.

Full reference: de Groot, O.J., C. Bozzoli and T. Brück, (2015). “The Global Economic Burden of Violent Conflict”. HiCN Working Papers, Nr. 199.

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New Article: Do jobs aid peace? The impact of employment interventions on peace, security and stability

The article titled “Do jobs aid peace? The impact of employment interventions on peace, security and stability” by Tilman Brück, Neil T.N. Ferguson, Valeria Izzi and Wolfgang Stojetz has been published in the February/March 2017 issue of GREAT Insights on Youth employment in fragile countries. The magazine is published by the European Centre for Development Policy Management […]

Research on the Effects of Conflict on Fertility published in “Demography”

New publication on the effects of conflict on fertility by Kati Kraehnert, Tilman Brück, Michele Di Maio and Roberto Nisticò has been published in Demography. This paper analyzes the fertility effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Results indicate the genocide had heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, […]

Simple statistical tools fail to describe jobs well in developing countries, new research by Damir Esenaliev and Neil Ferguson shows

In November 2018, Social Indicators Research published an original research article by Damir Esenaliev and Neil Ferguson on the relationship between good jobs and personal wellbeing. This study is one of the first conducted in a development context that looks beyond simple measures of job quality suggested by the classical labour supply model. This research […]