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New Study by ISDC: Costs of Conflict Comparable to Costs of Climate Change

Calculating the impact of different societal challenges, such as climate change, HIV/AIDS or cancer, uncovers the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. Since violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, the analysis of its impact is important. Using an integrated economic model accounting for multiple forms of conflict, the study finds that in the absence of violent conflict since 1960, global GDP in 2007 would have been 15.7% (10.9 trillion USD) larger. Furthermore, global income inequality would have been significantly lower. The largest absolute impacts are associated with domestic strife in China and India while Afghanistan suffers the largest relative burden. In contrast, many developed economies actually benefit from war. This shows that violent conflict is an integral part of the world economic structure, with a burden possibly exceeding that of climate change.

Full reference: de Groot, O.J., C. Bozzoli and T. Brück, (2015). “The Global Economic Burden of Violent Conflict”. HiCN Working Papers, Nr. 199.

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Press Release: “Can jobs programs build peace?” New paper highlights the need to strengthen evidence in development aid spending.

“Can jobs programs build peace?” has been published in the peer-reviewed journal “World Bank Research Observer”. This review of why jobs programs might build peace and whether or not they do is the result of collaboration between ISDC and Valeria Izzi, with support from ILO, PBSO, UNDP and the World Bank. The article highlights strong social science theories that link employment programs and peace but scant real world evidence that programs have successfully delivered this promise. Until such a link and its mechanisms can be robustly established, simply running good jobs programs in the difficult situations that require peacebuilding probably makes more sense.

Simple statistical tools fail to describe jobs well in developing countries, new research by Damir Esenaliev and Neil Ferguson shows

In November 2018, Social Indicators Research published an original research article by Damir Esenaliev and Neil Ferguson on the relationship between good jobs and personal wellbeing. This study is one of the first conducted in a development context that looks beyond simple measures of job quality suggested by the classical labour supply model. This research […]

UNICEF Blog on administrative data: Missed opportunity for learning and research in humanitarian emergencies?

Tilman Brück contributed to a blog discussing the strengths and weaknesses of using administrative data collected during emergencies for research on children. The blog was written by researchers from the recent UNICEF Social Protection Workshop. Source: Administrative Data: Missed opportunity for learning and research in humanitarian emergencies? – Evidence for Action