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New Study by ISDC: Costs of Conflict Comparable to Costs of Climate Change

Calculating the impact of different societal challenges, such as climate change, HIV/AIDS or cancer, uncovers the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. Since violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, the analysis of its impact is important. Using an integrated economic model accounting for multiple forms of conflict, the study finds that in the absence of violent conflict since 1960, global GDP in 2007 would have been 15.7% (10.9 trillion USD) larger. Furthermore, global income inequality would have been significantly lower. The largest absolute impacts are associated with domestic strife in China and India while Afghanistan suffers the largest relative burden. In contrast, many developed economies actually benefit from war. This shows that violent conflict is an integral part of the world economic structure, with a burden possibly exceeding that of climate change.

Full reference: de Groot, O.J., C. Bozzoli and T. Brück, (2015). “The Global Economic Burden of Violent Conflict”. HiCN Working Papers, Nr. 199.

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New Article: Can rigorous impact evaluations improve humanitarian assistance?

A new study by J. Puri, A. Aladysheva, V. Iversen, Y. Ghorpade and T. Brück has been published in  Journal of Development Effectiveness under the title “Can rigorous impact evaluations improve humanitarian assistance?”. The article reflects on the challenges of rigorous impact evaluations of humanitarian assistance. The authors find that theory-based impact evaluations can crucially inform humanitarian […]

New Publication on Violent Conflict and Inequality

The article by Çağatay Bircan, Tilman Brück & Marc Vothknecht “Violent conflict and inequality” has been published in the Journal of Oxford Development Studies on Taylor & Francis Online. It is available here.The paper analyses the distributive impacts of internal violent conflicts, in contrast to previous literature which has focused on the effects of inequality […]

Simple statistical tools fail to describe jobs well in developing countries, new research by Damir Esenaliev and Neil Ferguson shows

In November 2018, Social Indicators Research published an original research article by Damir Esenaliev and Neil Ferguson on the relationship between good jobs and personal wellbeing. This study is one of the first conducted in a development context that looks beyond simple measures of job quality suggested by the classical labour supply model. This research […]