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Research on the Effects of Conflict on Fertility published in “Demography”

New publication on the effects of conflict on fertility by Kati Kraehnert, Tilman Brück, Michele Di Maio and Roberto Nisticò has been published in Demography. This paper analyzes the fertility effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Results indicate the genocide had heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon. There is strong evidence of a child replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide increases both the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide and the total number of post- genocide births. Experiencing sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers post-genocide fertility in both the short-run and the long-run. Finally, a reduction in the local sex ratio negatively impacts the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide, especially for older women.

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Lebanon must learn from the Syrian disaster

In their latest op-ed, Tilman Brück and Mounir Mahmalat argue that overlapping crises are threatening the political, economic and social stability of Lebanon. As this column explains, the disaster in Syria provides insights into how grievances can accumulate to a point at which single events can trigger conflict. Elites in Lebanon must commit to a new […]

UNICEF Blog on administrative data: Missed opportunity for learning and research in humanitarian emergencies?

Tilman Brück contributed to a blog discussing the strengths and weaknesses of using administrative data collected during emergencies for research on children. The blog was written by researchers from the recent UNICEF Social Protection Workshop. Source: Administrative Data: Missed opportunity for learning and research in humanitarian emergencies? – Evidence for Action

Money Can’t Buy Love but Can it Buy Peace? Evidence from Northern Ireland

Tilman Brück and Neil Ferguson published a working paper on the effectiveness of a large-scale peace-building programme in Northern Ireland. In 1998, the Good Friday Agreement concluded a period of violence in Northern Ireland yet the scars of the conflict remained prevalent in the political landscape. Rival communities remained divided, economic performance was poor and intercommunity […]