For the first time, a study has shown a direct link between political violence and violence https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-71075-x#citeasagainst children, adolescents and young adults perpetrated by family members, acquaintances and peer groups. The findings are based on surveys of over 35,000 young people in nine African countries.
In 2022, around one in six children worldwide – or close to 470 million children – grew up in regions affected by violent conflict. The immediate effects of armed conflict on children, adolescents and young adults, including illness, displacement and death, have been extensively researched. In contrast, the role that political violence plays for different types of violence that young people experience in their domestic and community environments remains relatively unclear.
Emotional, physical and sexual violence following political violence
An international research team from Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (HU), ISDC – International Security and Development Center in Berlin, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Natural Resources Institute (NRI) at the University of Greenwich has investigated, across nine African countries, how exposure to political violence is associated with subsequent violence against children, adolescents and young adults. The team examined various forms of violence against young people, in particular physical, sexual and emotional violence inflicted by family members, teachers, friends or neighbours.
The study analysed data from surveys of over 35,000 young people aged between 13 and 24 in Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. These countries are home to around 30 per cent of Africa’s children, adolescents and young adults. The average age of the respondents was 18.
Statistically significant correlation over long-term measurement periods
Political violence occurring in the fifteen years prior to the surveys is significantly correlated to the emotional violence perpetrated recently by family members, to the physical violence from intimate partners and to the sexual violence against young people in poorer households. This statistical correlation is evident even in countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Namibia and Uganda where political violence is less prominent. However, when measuring political violence over just a few years prior to the surveys, no statistically significant link was found between political violence and violence against young people. These findings have been published in a recent issue of Nature Communications.
“Violence leads to more violence, and in more ways than previously understood.”
“This is the first time that this chain of violence has been empirically verified. And this is crucial for identifying future measures that effectively protect young people from violence. Violence against young people encompasses not only physical violence, but also sexual and emotional violence,” says Dr Tilman Brück, Professor for Economic Development and Food Security at the Thaer-Institute for Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences at HU and co-author of the study.
Dr Olusegun Fadare, a development economist at the Natural Resources Institute at the University of Greenwich and also a co-author of the study, adds: “Our study shows that the impact of political violence is deeper than the headlines suggest; it reshapes attitudes and behaviours over long periods of time, long after the political violence has come to an end.”
Quantitative evidence for a previously suspected pathway
“With this study, we are providing, for the first time, robust, quantitative evidence for a pathway that the independent children’s rights organisation Save the Children has long suspected but has rarely been able to demonstrate at scale: that political violence does not end when the guns fall silent but instead leaves a lasting imprint on how children are treated within their own families and communities,” says Dr Marcella Vigneri of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and senior economist at Save the Children UK, lead author of the study.
The analysis was based on survey data on experiences of violence among young people aged 13 to 24 in Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe, collected as part of the Violence Against Children Surveys (VACS). The surveys measured the experience of violence among young people in the twelve months preceding each survey. The researchers combined these survey results with detailed data on political violence in the respective countries – collected by the non-governmental organisation Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).
This research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) in the UK and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) in Germany.
Further information
Image credit: Damilola Saka, Pexels
Vigneri, M., O. Fadare, K. Devries, V. Iversen and T. Brück (2026). “Past political violence and interpersonal violence against children and youth in Africa.” Nature Communications, vol. 17, no. 3044.
