Harmony on the airwaves? Evidence from peace radio at the Mali / Niger border

Light touch peacebuilding interventions have the capacity to reach a large number of people cheaply, particularly in remote settings where access is otherwise difficult. These interventions are often observed to change short-term behaviours but questions arise about their capacity to shift underlying attitudes and preferences in the long term, let alone to influence aggregate indicators like conflict intensity. In this work, we assess the extent to which peace radio broadcasts in a highly violent setting, the Mali / Niger border, influenced dynamics of violence. Using a geographic discontinuity demarcated by the end of the short broadcasting ranges of community radio stations and spatial difference-in-difference models, we show a major structural break in patterns of violence immediately after the broadcasts begin. These results show violence to be escalating both within and just beyond the broadcasting range before the broadcasts. Before the programming began, violence was evolving similarly inside and outside the range. After they begin, the spread of violence increases at a significantly reduced rate in the broadcast areas, relative to non-broadcast areas. This suggests the potential that light touch mass media interventions can shift major, high-level outcomes, like conflict dynamics, in the short-term.